CONMEBOL June World Cup Qualifying Recap

 

CONMEBOL has probably the most competitive qualifying format in the world.  There’s only 1 round, 1 group, and all 9 qualifying teams play a round robin style tournament to determine the top 4 teams to qualify directly for Brazil 2014.  After June’s matches, each team has only 3 or 4 games remaining.  There is not a single team that has mathematically qualified or been eliminated.  Things are that close.

Uruguay got a massive road win at Venezuela, but our predictor had Venezuela as one of the most overrated in CONMEBOL.  The tough journey lies ahead for Uruguay.  We’ll take a look at how our predictions stacked up and where each team stands in their attempt to qualify.

 

June 7

 

Chile 2 – Paraguay 1 – Asuncion, Paraguay

While Paraguay came up short yet again in qualifying, the real story here is Chile.  Their backs were against the wall knowing that their last two games are against Ecuador and Colombia. Road wins have been so hard to come by in qualifying, but the Chileans were not deterred.  This was simply an opportunity that must be seized.  Despite the close scoreline, this one was never really in doubt as Chile held a 2 goal lead for the majority of the 2nd half.  Paraguay at best can qualify for the 5th place play-off, but they should be eliminated fairly early in September.  We thought they’d have a little more fight in them.

Prediction: Draw
Result: Chile by 1

 

Argentina 0 – Colombia 0 – Buenos Aires, Argentina

It looks like Argentina will have to wait a little bit longer to officially pop bottles.  It’s unfortunate that probably the best matchup of June qualifying went goalless.  Colombia must be ecstatic here.  Going into Argentina and coming away with anything is huge.  They still have 4 games left and are in great position.  Both of these teams should be in Brazil and they may meet again with more on the line.  Colombia’s remaining schedule is not the easiest in the world, but they still should be fine.

Prediction: Argentina by 1
Result: Draw

 

Bolivia 1 – Venezuela 1 – La Paz, Bolivia

Estadio Hernando Siles looks like an amazing place to see a game.  The scenery of city and mountains simultaneously is remarkable around the stadium, and the field looks like scorched earth.  The Bolivian fans were ready, but the team was not.  Without the 3 points in this one, Bolivia’s goose is as good as cooked.  It’s doubtful the equalizer at the death will help them at all, but it seriously hurt Venezuela’s chances of reaching Brazil.  Even before knowing what would happen 4 days later, this was a massive disappointment for Venezuela.  They will need to move mountains to get back into it.

Prediction: Bolivia by 1
Result: Draw

 

Peru 1 – Ecuador 0 – Lima, Peru

Peru just refuses to get into a high-scoring battle.  Ecuador was sitting pretty and would’ve certainly been pleased coming away with something.  We indicated that this was a must-have for Peru and they did not disappoint.  It’s looking more and more like Peru and Uruguay will end up battling for the 5th place spot in CONMEBOL.  It’s not the end of the world for Ecuador, however.  They’re 5 points ahead of Uruguay and Venezuela.  It will be interesting to see if the momentum the Peruvians have built will carry over into September.  Our predictor had a rough day in South America.

Prediction: Ecuador by 2
Result: Peru by 1

 

June 11

 

Colombia 2 – Peru 0 – Barranquilla, Colombia

Finally our predictor got it together.  Peru is allergic to winning away from home, and Colombia is one of the toughest.  This one seemed virtually insurmountable for Peru, and Colombia wasted no time getting on the board in the 12th minute.  With another just before the stroke of half, the Peruvians were demoralized and could not muster any sort of comeback in the 2nd half.  With this result, their win over Ecuador on the 7th is so much bigger.  Colombia is playing so well, they’ve moved to #1 in our rankings.  They’re on the verge of reaching Brazil, and they’re a serious contender to win the whole thing.

Prediction: Colombia by 3
Result: Colombia by 2

 

Uruguay 1 – Venezuela 0 – Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela

We’ve been ragging on Uruguay for showing virtually nothing in qualifying.  This was they’re World Cup here in Venezuela.  A loss may have been too damaging to recover from.  But teams advance by beating their closest competition.  Uruguay now sits in 5th with a game in hand on Venezuela.  The rest of their schedule is daunting, but it may be a 2 horse race with Peru.  This simply was not good enough from Venezuela.  After blowing a late lead in Bolivia, they’ve all but sealed their fate claiming only 1 point against 2 teams that were below them in the standings.  Perhaps Uruguay can gain some momentum in the Confederations Cup.

Prediction: Draw
Result: Uruguay by 1

 

Ecuador 1 – Argentina 1 – Quito, Ecuador

After coming up empty in Peru, things looked bleak for the hosts when Argentina pulled ahead through a Sergio Aguero PK in the 4th.  But they fought right back to tie it, and neither team was able to do much more after that.  Argentina must be disappointed that they still will have to play meaningful games in the fall, but they are in no danger of missing out on Brazil.  They’ve clinched at worst a spot in the 5th place play off and it shouldn’t be long until it’s official.  While Ecuador only got 1 point in June, a road test at Peru and a match against Argentina is no easy task.  They should be OK as well.

Prediction: Draw
Result: Draw

 

Chile 3 – Bolivia 1 – Santiago, Chile

We said in our preview “If Chile is serious about returning to the World Cup, this game is a must have.”  They certainly heeded that advice taking care of an inferior Bolivia squad.  The streak of Bolivia futility continued, and they still haven’t taken a point against Chile in 12 years.  This is the reason it’s going to be so tough for Uruguay and Peru to sneak up into the top 4. Between Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, and Chile having 3 of their final 4 at home, it’s a lot of ground to make up.  Bolivia, meanwhile, is on the brink of elimination and have no chance of qualifying.  Our predictor had a much better day on the 11th.

Prediction: Chile by 2
Result: Chile by 2

 

With the dust settled in South America, the top 4 look to be in very strong position.  Chile separated themselves from Venezuela.  Additionally, Bolivia and Paraguay are virtually dead in the water.  The most likely scenario is a 3 team battle for the 5th place spot between Uruguay, Peru, and Venezuela.  Venezuela only has 3 games remaining, which definitely hurts them.  Peru hosts Bolivia and plays both Uruguay and Venezuela, so it looks like they control their own destiny despite being in 7th.  The September 6th match Uruguay @ Peru is probably the biggest game remaining on the continent.

Here are the standings and the odds of each team finishing in qualifying position:

 

 

 

Overall, our predictor did a decent job.  We hit 2 games exactly and were only 1 goal off on 5 others.  There was only 1 game we were off by more than one goal, which was Peru’s victory over Ecuador.  Thanks for reading.  We have much more on the website covering every tournament and every corner of the globe.  Be sure to follow us on Twitter @We_Global.

CONMEBOL Correspondent,
Cro