Qualifying Pot Projections – World Cup 2018

In less than a year (July 2015), the 2018 World Cup Qualifying draw will take place, and teams will be placed into pots hoping to reach the 2018 finals. There is one undeniable fact: Playing weaker competition leads to better results.

How important are the qualifying pots? Let’s take a look at how teams from each confederation fared in the 2014 World Cup Qualifying:

 

AFC:

When the initial qualifying draw was performed in July 2011, 20 AFC teams were placed into 4 Pots. The 4 teams to qualify for the World Cup from AFC were ALL placed in Pot 1. Of teams to qualify for the World Cup from AFC, 100% were in Pot 1 of the initial qualifying draw.

80% of the teams in Pot 1 advanced to the finals in qualifying

60% of the teams in Pot 2 advanced to the finals in qualifying

40% of the teams in Pot 3 advanced to the finals in qualifying

20% of the teams in Pot 4 advanced to the finals in qualifying.

 

CAF

Even moreso than AFC, the Pots in CAF matter. Remarkably, 9 of the 10 teams in Pot 1 advanced to the final round of qualifying. That’s an incredible 90%!

The only team out of Pot 1 not to advance to the final round of qualifying was South Africa. Remarkably, it was Ethiopia out of Pot 4 who advanced.

When the final round came, 4 of the 5 teams to advance to the World Cup were in Pot 1 in the final draw.

From CAF, 90% of the teams in Pot 1 advanced to the final qualifying round, and 80% of the teams in Pot 1 of the final round advanced to the World Cup.

 

CONCACAF

This is a tough nut to crack. CONCACAF historically favors the top teams. All 3 of the teams initially in Pot 1 advanced to the World Cup. But perhaps there is a little more here than meets the eye.

Of the teams in Pot 1 or 2 of the initial draw, only Cuba did not advance to the Hex. While Jamaica was overpowered in the finals, they got there more because of their draw than anything else. 5 of the 6 teams in Pot 1 or 2 advanced to the Hex. Only Panama was able to advance from behind, and they were unable to reach the World Cup.

Perhaps the best cases here are Jamaica and Costa Rica. One of the two was virtually guaranteed to advance to the World Cup. Pot 1 was a lock.

 

UEFA

The most giving of all the pots. It matters here. 13 teams advanced to the World Cup from UEFA. Of the 13, 8 came from Pot 1, 2 came from Pot 2, and 3 came from Pot 3. That’s it. Of the 4 teams to qualify in the 2nd round playoffs, 3 of the 4 were in Pot 1.

 

Now let’s take a look at some overall percentages for these 4 confederations and the initial draw:

 

There is a question of cause and effect here, but certainly it is proof that teams in Pot 1 have a far superior chance of qualifying for the World Cup than others. Teams need to focus on maximizing their chances.

Over the following months leading up to the final draw, we will continue to project the qualifying pots for these 4 confederations on this site. What does this involve? It is a massive project that involves taking a look at every scheduled match, every unscheduled match, and every team involved (over 170 of them!). We will simulate versions of the rankings using our rankings and match projections. These will be posted and updated on a regular basis as matches are played and more details about the final draw are revealed.

 

Here are the assumptions we are going to make right now in the absence of more information:

– The FIFA Rankings schedule will be as follows:

Ranking Dates

9/18/2014

10/23/2014

11/27/2014

12/18/2014

1/15/2015

2/12/2015

3/12/2015

4/9/2015

5/14/2015

6/18/2015

7/23/2015

– The format each confederation will use will be the same as 2014 until otherwise identified.

– Tournaments with groups yet to be announced will have groups randomly generated by WGF. The resulting matches will be used as predictions.

– No additional friendlies will be included in the predictions until they are scheduled.

 

We will soon be adding pages for Qualifying Pot Projections for each confederation. Enjoy!