2018 World Cup Qualifying Pot Projections – UEFA
As we posted , we’ll be keeping track of World Cup Qualifying Pots and projecting where each team will finish. UEFA should be fairly straightforward. We are making the following assumptions for UEFA.
1. There will be 13 positions available for UEFA teams.
2. There will be 6 pots containing 52 teams.
3. There will be 7 groups of 6 teams and 2 groups of 5 teams.
4. The July 2015 FIFA Ranking will be used to seed teams into pots.
Here are the FINAL pots for the 2018 World Cup Qualifying Draw.
| Pot 1 | Pot 2 | Pot 3 | Pot 4 | Pot 5 | Pot 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Italy | Poland | Turkey | Cyprus | Kazakhstan |
| Belgium | Slovakia | Ukraine | Slovenia | Latvia | Luxembourg |
| Netherlands | Austria | Scotland | Israel | Armenia | Liechtenstein |
| Romania | Switzerland | Hungary | Republic of Ireland | Finland | Georgia |
| England | Czech Republic | Sweden | Norway | Belarus | Malta |
| Wales | France | Albania | Bulgaria | FYR Macedonia | San Marino |
| Portugal | Iceland | Northern Ireland | Faroe Islands | Azerbaijan | Andorra |
| Spain | Denmark | Serbia | Montenegro | Lithuania | |
| Croatia | Bosnia-Herzegovina | Greece | Estonia | Moldova |
Pot 1
| Rank | WGF Rank | Team | 1 Year Points | 2 Year Points | 3 Year Points | 4 Year Points | TOTAL |
| 1 | 1 | Germany | 577.40 | 1040.81 | 497.45 | 818.37 | 1411 |
| 3 | 2 | Belgium | 530.35 | 862.46 | 784.88 | 234.30 | 1244 |
| 5 | 8 | Netherlands | 519.15 | 887.56 | 628.77 | 264.04 | 1204 |
| 6 | 17 | Portugal | 600.93 | 601.75 | 464.53 | 679.50 | 1177 |
| 8 | 12 | Romania | 786.91 | 367.00 | 444.56 | 313.24 | 1166 |
| 9 | 20 | England | 705.38 | 411.37 | 350.91 | 702.50 | 1157 |
| 10 | 7 | Wales | 817.58 | 271.44 | 310.13 | 542.25 | 1155 |
| 12 | 18 | Spain | 481.99 | 524.78 | 676.64 | 815.39 | 1110 |
| 13 | 19 | Croatia | 546.05 | 390.36 | 563.31 | 561.77 | 1023 |
As noted above, Pot 1 is all settled, except for Croatia may be passed by Italy. Overall, it’s a pretty fair pot containing most of the best teams in Europe.
Pot 2
| Rank | WGF Rank | Team | 1 Year Points | 2 Year Points | 3 Year Points | 4 Year Points | TOTAL |
| 14 | 39 | Slovakia | 737.88 | 338.33 | 229.40 | 201.81 | 1016 |
| 14 | 11 | Austria | 698.57 | 322.82 | 345.83 | 260.39 | 1016 |
| 16 | 27 | Italy | 469.01 | 466.22 | 544.15 | 678.43 | 1001 |
| 18 | 23 | Switzerland | 367.14 | 739.37 | 593.52 | 411.83 | 997 |
| 20 | 31 | Czech Republic | 593.07 | 240.33 | 366.85 | 548.86 | 933 |
| 22 | 6 | France | 288.09 | 773.40 | 361.23 | 494.47 | 882 |
| 23 | 16 | Iceland | 571.49 | 331.45 | 388.33 | 116.25 | 877 |
| 24 | 26 | Denmark | 474.54 | 396.00 | 294.08 | 576.24 | 876 |
| 27 | 36 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 348.60 | 402.43 | 644.22 | 378.82 | 819 |
Again not much controversy. France probably deserves to be in pot 1, but were royally screwed by hosting EURO 2016. Slovakia, Czech Republic and Bosnia are probably the 3 teams you’d want to draw out of this pot, but there are no pushovers.
Pot 3
| Rank | WGF Rank | Team | 1 Year Points | 2 Year Points | 3 Year Points | 4 Year Points | TOTAL |
| 28 | 52 | Ukraine | 323.14 | 531.31 | 481.98 | 287.29 | 791 |
| 32 | 13 | Scotland | 389.89 | 428.42 | 313.25 | 380.00 | 774 |
| 33 | 6 | Poland | 524.06 | 223.25 | 224.75 | 328.01 | 769 |
| 34 | 37 | Hungary | 432.75 | 246.50 | 389.88 | 452.25 | 763 |
| 35 | 24 | Sweden | 404.51 | 332.50 | 292.78 | 466.43 | 752 |
| 37 | 25 | Albania | 498.32 | 104.10 | 453.29 | 177.01 | 722 |
| 38 | 29 | Northern Ireland | 556.12 | 198.39 | 157.43 | 94.29 | 721 |
| 42 | 32 | Serbia | 307.64 | 408.40 | 346.80 | 230.00 | 662 |
| 43 | 80 | Greece | 110.20 | 566.90 | 545.44 | 516.96 | 661 |
Well here’s where things get interesting. Poland screwed themselves out of Pot 2. We tried to contact them to no avail. They look to definitely be the best team in the pot. Also, Greece is awful lucky to hang on to this spot. They’re playing absolutely horrible, and at this point you’ve got to want to draw them.
Pot 4
| Rank | WGF Rank | Team | 1 Year Points | 2 Year Points | 3 Year Points | 4 Year Points | TOTAL |
| 49 | 21 | Turkey | 285.17 | 428.96 | 195.50 | 345.54 | 627 |
| 50 | 83 | Slovenia | 312.78 | 361.22 | 265.50 | 263.36 | 626 |
| 51 | 50 | Israel | 419.51 | 181.18 | 330.05 | 53.57 | 620 |
| 52 | 41 | Republic of Ireland | 393.74 | 116.39 | 256.58 | 394.88 | 608 |
| 67 | 61 | Norway | 255.81 | 133.79 | 377.42 | 295.23 | 495 |
| 68 | 62 | Bulgaria | 277.91 | 133.37 | 418.98 | 93.88 | 489 |
| 75 | 69 | Faroe Islands | 441.79 | 28.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 456 |
| 79 | 53 | Montenegro | 181.74 | 159.05 | 461.56 | 115.88 | 423 |
| 81 | 76 | Estonia | 246.33 | 122.91 | 145.74 | 344.56 | 420 |
Pot 4 seems pretty reasonable. But Turkey being in there is going to be very tough for whoever draws them. Saddled with a difficult EURO qualifying group, they’re a quality side that just came up against some tough competition. Our rankings are a little harsh on Slovenia, as they’re more within the pack of Pot 4 teams. Estonia is probably the team you’d want here. Faroe Islands are playing tough.
Pot 5
| Rank | WGF Rank | Team | 1 Year Points | 2 Year Points | 3 Year Points | 4 Year Points | TOTAL |
| 84 | 68 | Cyprus | 298.06 | 83.75 | 120.00 | 74.29 | 391 |
| 86 | 75 | Latvia | 210.19 | 185.78 | 65.60 | 269.28 | 377 |
| 88 | 111 | Armenia | 58.69 | 354.01 | 233.61 | 335.09 | 373 |
| 90 | 63 | Finland | 103.95 | 245.90 | 317.85 | 243.95 | 371 |
| 98 | 74 | Belarus | 176.85 | 123.78 | 247.81 | 141.13 | 341 |
| 106 | 112 | FYR Macedonia | 95.18 | 217.02 | 247.00 | 164.66 | 311 |
| 109 | 117 | Azerbaijan | 98.01 | 263.52 | 134.05 | 158.74 | 302 |
| 111 | 102 | Lithuania | 155.82 | 164.75 | 140.63 | 103.36 | 301 |
| 124 | 108 | Moldova | 82.50 | 200.24 | 139.25 | 56.44 | 236 |
Nothing to be surprised about here. Cyprus, Finland, Latvia and Belarus appear to be the best of the lot, but it would be really surprising at this point to see any of these teams give the top teams trouble. The quality just simply has not been there.
Pot 6
| Rank | WGF Rank | Team | 1 Year Points | 2 Year Points | 3 Year Points | 4 Year Points | TOTAL |
| 139 | 92 | Kazakhstan | 89.97 | 129.57 | 71.06 | 82.79 | 193 |
| 142 | 130 | Luxembourg | 44.06 | 164.55 | 71.75 | 195.64 | 187 |
| 144 | 126 | Liechtenstein | 147.40 | 0.00 | 74.00 | 60.00 | 182 |
| 148 | 93 | Georgia | 23.34 | 134.46 | 180.98 | 103.14 | 165 |
| 154 | 146 | Malta | 73.10 | 21.43 | 137.17 | 160.06 | 157 |
| 191 | 174 | San Marino | 39.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40 |
| 202 | 188 | Andorra | 0.00 | 11.00 | 0.00 | 15.17 | 9 |
If you wind up in a group with 6 teams, Andorra or San Marino are the teams you want. They’re clearly the two worst teams at the moment in Europe. The other 5 teams will definitely put up a fight and could steal some points here and there. Wouldn’t expect much out of this lot.
We hope you enjoyed our rundown of UEFA Qualifying Pots. We’ll try to keep this updated as often as possible. It’s obviously a massive task.
There are plenty of teams that would benefit from strategically scheduling friendlies. We’d love to help. Reach out to us on Twitter @We_Global or via email at briff@weglobalfootball.com
Thanks for reading!
Very interesting. The Northern Ireland friendly hasn’t been confirmed for Wales. If this match was cancelled, and Wales went on to beat Belgium what would their points total be? Would this probably put Wales in pot 1?
Without the friendly, Wales would have 1155 with a win, 991 with a draw, 910 with a loss against Belgium. 1155 is definitely enough to get into Pot 1.
The friendly truly adds nothing at all and puts pressure on Wales to have to win it. A draw v Northern Ireland and win over Belgium would leave Wales at 1060, which might not be good enough for Pot 1. 2 losses leaves Wales at 828 and in danger of falling below Pot 2. Without the friendly, the minimum is 910, which is a Pot 2 lock as indicated above.
Dear, if Albania win appeal in CAS of Laussane against Serbia, they will be shure for pot 3 ? Regards
It would still depend on what other teams did, because at best, Albania will be awarded a draw. Don’t see any way they’d be awarded a win. If they get the draw, their point projections for win, draw, and loss would all go up by about 50-60 points, which would still leave it up in the air. It certainly increases their chances.
Hello, do you happen to know at what time the draw is being held?
July 25th. Not sure of time yet.
Now that the games have been played, what are the standings?
As a Scottish fan I’m thinking we’re pot 3 after the draw but is there any chance some other results fell out way and we sneaked pot 2?
If Armenia have drawn in the match with Portugal, they would have been in pot 4 :/
If you Go back 18 months – who would have thought we would have Wales in group 1 and. Iceland in pot 2.
Well done to the faroes on beating Greece twice – but does this really justify a jump up of 2 pots ??
Now that Albania has been awarded a win in their game against Serbia, does this change the pots at all? Are Serbia still in Pot 3? Or do Turkey overtake them?
There will be no changes to the July FIFA Rankings and as a result no changes to the pots. Had the decision been made last week, Albania would have moved to Pot 2, knocking down Bosnia-Herzegovina. Serbia would have fallen to Pot 4, with Turkey moving to Pot 3.