EURO 2016 Qualifying Update – Matchday 1

We concluded our preview of EURO 2016 in August. Matches have been played, so it’s time to update the numbers. As a reminder, there are 53 teams in 9 groups competing for 23 spots alongside host France. The top 2 teams in each group will qualify, the best 3rd place team will qualify, and the 4 winners of the 3rd place Playoffs will also qualify.

Here are the groups in Pot Order (The first team in each group came from Pot 1, etc.)

 

Group A
Netherlands, Czech Republic, Turkey, Latvia, Iceland, Kazakhstan

Group B
Bosnia-Herzegovina,Belgium, Israel, Wales, Cyprus, Andorra

Group C
Spain, Ukraine, Slovakia, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Luxembourg

Group D
Germany, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, Gibraltar

Group E
England, Switzerland, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, San Marino

Group F
Greece, Hungary, Romania, Finland, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands

Group G
Russia, Sweden, Austria, Montenegro, Moldova, Liechtenstein

Group H
Italy, Croatia, Norway, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Malta

Group I
Portugal, Denmark, Serbia, Armenia, Albania

 

 

The formula for projecting points for an individual match is as follows: (Win Probability x 3) + (Draw Probability x 1). The sum of those points is a team’s projected points in qualifying. These projections should be MUCH more accurate. We’ll keep this page updated regularly, so keep checking back. We’ll hold our predictions steady before the tournament begins.

As always, you can click on team names below to go to their team pages.

 

The Group Stage

Group A (Netherlands, Czech Republic, Turkey, Latvia, Iceland, Kazakhstan)

Results:

Czech Republic 2 – Netherlands 1
Iceland 3 – Turkey 0
Kazakhstan 0 – Latvia 0

Well if you thought Group A would be a runaway, you were dead wrong. Turkey was reduced to 10 men and Iceland capitalized, picking up a huge 3 points in the process. Believe it or not, we now project Iceland to finish 2nd in the group! But what a battle it will be for 2nd. The Czechs got a very necessary 3 points at home against one of the best teams in the world. That will certainly go a long way. They were the real winners of this group as their projected point total skyrocketed by over 5 points. While the Dutch should still end up atop the group, this is going to be far closer than we initially projected.

 

Group B (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium, Israel, Wales, Cyprus, Andorra)

Results:

Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 – Cyprus 2
Andorra 1 – Wales 2

Andorra nearly shocked Wales, and it would have been a historic result. But Gareth Bale came through for the Welsh, and they took all 3 points. And it was Cyprus who did pull off the shock result. Cyprus had been downright dreadful against UEFA competition on the road. Our projection for Cyprus went way up, but it still is a long road to get in the discussion for qualifying. Belgium is the real winner in all of this. They’re the best team in this group, and given the slip ups behind them, they need to finish top of the group. Their point projection went up without even playing a match. Bosnia is now on the ropes after just one game, and the door has been opened for Wales or Israel to qualify directly.

 

Group C (Spain, Ukraine, Slovakia, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Luxembourg)

Results:

Spain 5 – FYR Macedonia 1
Ukraine 0 – Slovakia 1
Luxembourg 1 – Belarus 1

Controversy already in Group C. A rare sight in football, a goalie goal, was disallowed in stoppage time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7D5ywFULsA

It’s unfortunate that this goal was disallowed, but surely Slovakia will take the result. A road win at the projected 2nd place team is massive. But despite this, we still have Ukraine barely ahead of Slovakia. It is highly likely that it will be a 2 horse race for 2nd, coming down to the final matchday. Nothing really changed here from our initial projection. We liked Spain to top the group with Ukraine and Slovakia fighting for 2nd. The difference between old and new points barely moved. Luxembourg is not a bad team, as Belarus found out. You can’t squander points against them if you want to qualify. We ultimately believe that the top 3 in this group will all be in France.

 

Group D (Germany, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, Gibraltar)

Results:

Germany 2 – Scotland 1
Gibraltar 0 – Poland 7
Georgia 1 – Republic of Ireland 2

Imagine how different this group would be if it was Latvia out of Pot 4 instead of Scotland. Germany is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. We don’t project another country to finish with a higher point total. Scotland looked like it had gotten a road point, but it was not to be as Muller scored the winner for Germany. Poland banged on Gibraltar to the tune of 7 goals. That result didn’t really change much. But Ireland came through and got a massive road win at Georgia. That’s no easy feat. They’ll be in the mix for 2nd place with Scotland and Poland. Things are a little tighter than our initial projection, but largely everything remained the same.

 

Group E (England, Switzerland, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, San Marino)

Results:

Switzerland 0 – England 2
Estonia 1 – Slovenia 0
San Marino 0 – Lithuania 2

Arguably no team made a bigger statement than England, winning on the road at Switzerland. Danny Welbeck tallied twice and picked up 3 points for the 3 Lions. We thought England and the Swiss would be fighting for top spot, but now there is a clear favorite. Estonia also picked up a huge 3 points at home against Slovenia. While just 1 match is too early to decide a team’s fate, had Estonia dropped points they would’ve been in a world of hurt. Switzerland still should be OK to end up in 2nd place, but the battle for 3rd place in this group is going to be the one to watch. Whoever finishes 3rd should be headed to the playoffs. No changes to our projected order.

 

Group F (Greece, Hungary, Romania, Finland, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands)

Results:

Greece 0 – Romania 1
Hungary 1 – Northern Ireland 2
Faroe Islands 1 – Finland 3

We thought this was by far the weakest group in terms of teams from Pots 1 and 2. We thought Romania and Finland would be licking their chops with this draw. Turns out we were right. Both Greece and Hungary went down at home, turning this group upside down. We still thing it will likely be Romania, Finland and Greece in the top 3 in some order, but it can truly be any order. And what to make of Northern Ireland? Could they parlay this road success into a spot in France? We projected them to finish 7.47 points below Hungary. We now have them 0.41 above! This is about as exciting as it gets. Everyone has a shot.

 

Group G (Russia, Sweden, Austria, Montenegro, Moldova, Liechtenstein)

Results:

Russia 4 – Liechtenstein 0
Austria 1 – Sweden 1
Montenegro 2 – Moldova 0

Yet another group where very little changed from our initial projection. Sweden got a huge road point at Austria. Preventing them from taking all 3 at home probably kept them in the mix for top spot in the group. Remarkably, no team’s point projection changed by more than 1.25. Russia played their easiest group match first. Montenegro took care of business at home. While it’s still a bit of a long shot for Montenegro to sneak into the Top 3, we wouldn’t be completely surprised if it happened. We still believe the best 3rd place team will come from this group and qualify directly. Russia, Austria, and Sweden should all be in France in some order.

 

Group H (Italy, Croatia, Norway, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Malta)

Results:

Norway 0 – Italy 2
Croatia 2 – Malta 0
Azerbaijan 1 – Bulgaria 2

Already it is evident that there will be a top 3 and a bottom 3 in this group. You may think we’re being a little harsh on Norway, but we’re not. Italy is a good team, but you need to show more than that at home. What’s going to happen when you go on the road? The Bulgaria-Azerbaijan result was a little surprising. We projected the two to finish relatively close in points, but after Bulgaria’s win, it’s clear that Azerbaijan is not yet ready for the big time. Croatia didn’t do anything wrong to get leapfrogged by Italy. It was due to Italy’s road win that they moved up even further. We still like Italy-Croatia top 2 in some order. Minimal change here.

 

Group I (Portugal, Denmark, Serbia, Armenia, Albania)

Results:

Portugal 0 – Albania 1
Denmark 2 – Armenia 1

We pegged this group as one of the most exciting in qualifying. That certainly is true after one matchday. Albania came out of nowhere to pick up 3 road points, and they’re now right in the mix for at least a spot in the playoffs. That was certainly a major surprise. We now like Serbia to top the group, and Portugal needs to be careful they don’t slip up again. Could they actually miss out on France? It seems difficult to believe. We think they’ll get it together, but perhaps Portugal and Serbia won’t be clear 1-2 in this group. Denmark and Albania aren’t going to go down without a fight.

 

The 24 Finalists

 

Things are a little bit different than before. We have a new projected winner in Group F in Romania. Iceland and Wales have also climbed into direct qualifying position with their wins. Remarkably the top 3 did not change in any group with the match results.

We currently have Sweden with the most 3rd place points, and we expect the 3rd place team in Group G to claim the direct quailfier, whoever it is. Of the remaining 3rd place teams, we rank Turkey, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece and Slovakia the highest. It should be a great tournament with great Playoffs.

As always, we appreciate any feedback and welcome your thoughts. Please be sure to follow us on Twitter @We_Global so you don’t miss our latest content. Thanks for reading!