2014 World Cup Odds and Predictions – Groups C and D

We continue our series of World Cup previews with the exciting and very competitive Groups C and D. Thanks to our designer Adam Tatz for all of the incredible team logos.

Other Previews:

Groups A and B

Groups E and F

Groups G and H

 

Group C

This is definitely one of the most wide open groups in the entire tournament. While Colombia was considered the favorite at the time of the draw, injury to superstar Radamel Falcao has left the side shorthanded. Jackson Martinez is going to have to step up in a major way if Colombia wants to advance out of the group. We still like Colombia to finish top of the group, but our confidence in the pick has certainly taken a hit.

The trio of Ivory Coast, Greece, and Japan don’t stand out as favorites in the tournament, but each brings plenty of strengths and weaknesses to the table. We only have 10 spots separating these teams in our rankings, so it would not be a surprise to see any emerge and advance. Group C is the only group where we give all 4 teams at least a 8% chance of finishing top of the group. We also give each team at least a 33% chance of advancing out of the group. No other group has all 4 teams above 20%. This is going to be an extremely close group which can go a number of ways. Could this Ivory Coast side finally be the African team to make a deep run? We’re typically not big on AFC teams, but Japan can carry the torch here for the continent. Greece is a total wild card, as you’ll see below.

Here are the results of our simulator xCRO. One thing to keep in mind is that while we give Japan a 36.6% chance of finishing last, that really means we give them an almost 65% chance of not finishing last. There’s not much value to be had in Group C at all.

 

And likewise, here are our projected odds based on these percentages versus the true odds you’ll find.

 

Group D

While Group C has a favorite, and a bunch of equal contenders, Group D does not have a clear favorite in the least. While many thought Italy was the team to beat, disappointing recent draws against Ireland and Luxembourg have put those thoughts into question. Uruguay has shown strong form after starting their qualifying campaign quite slow. Costa Rica is certainly no slouch, as they performed very well throughout CONCACAF qualifying, finishing ahead of Mexico and Honduras. While the odds are against them to emerge from this very strong group, they’ll hold their own.

We view Uruguay as a strong contender, as do most others. But our rankings have Italy and England switched around from where many believe they’ll finish. We have England as the top ranked team in the group, with Italy 3rd. Italy was widely viewed as the favorite to finish top of the group, but their odds have gotten a little bit longer with their recent performance. While they are still the favorite, Uruguay is now right behind them. England is getting very little respect, and it remains to be seen whether they can come through in a big tournament as Italy so frequently does. Italy has won just 6 of their past 22 matches, and have taken a total of 6 points in their past 7 matches. But it wouldn’t be surprising if they beat Costa Rica and come away from the other matches with 2 draws to advance on 5 points.

Here are the results of our simulations.

 

And likewise, here are our projected odds based on these percentages versus the true odds you’ll find. If you believe our rankings, there’s some value to be had on England.

 

We’ll have more odds and predictions soon. We hope you enjoyed reading, and be sure to follow us on Twitter @We_Global for the latest news.