2014 World Cup Odds and Predictions – Groups E and F

We continue our series of World Cup previews with the exciting and very competitive Groups E and F. Thanks to our designer Adam Tatz for all of the incredible team logos.

Other Previews:

Groups A and B

Groups C and D

Groups G and H

 

Group E

France made out pretty well with the draw. Despite being placed in the formidable Pot X, they drew the easiest seeded team in Switzerland. They also ended up with Honduras, who despite being a solid team, is certainly not of the caliber of the USA and Mexico. France has been playing much better after losing 4 of their first 5 to begin 2013. Since a loss to Brazil, France has just 1 defeat in their past 11 matches (the first leg of the play-off home and home vs. Ukraine). In their last 5 matches, they’ve scored 18 goals against just 1 conceded. They are peaking at the right time.

Switzerland, meanwhile, made out pretty well with the qualifying draw, as their Pot 1 opposition was Norway. They’re no slouch, but it might be tough for them to break through.and finish top of the group. Ecuador remains an enigma. For a long time in CONMEBOL qualifying, they threatened to finish top of the table. Things started to go south for Ecuador about a year ago with the death of Christian Benitez. In the past 14 matches, Ecuador has won just 2. One of those was a friendly against Australia in which they came back from 3-0 down. They are not in prime form. In preparation for Brazil, Honduras played 6 friendlies against teams outside of CONCACAF. They managed just 1 win, with 2 draws and 3 defeats. Not inspiring.

France is playing by far the best football of all teams in this group, and they look poised to win the group. Switzerland may threaten, but are more likely to finish 2nd than anywhere else. It will be interesting to see what happens with Ecuador. We agree wholly with the oddsmakers when it comes to Group E. There’s virtually no value anywhere.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
France 59.6% 25.4% 10.6% 4.4%
Switzerland 20.4% 32.2% 29.4% 18.0%
Ecuador 15.0% 30.8% 36.2% 18.0%
Honduras 5.0% 11.6% 23.8% 59.6%

 

And likewise, here are our projected odds based on these percentages versus the true odds you’ll find.

Team WGF Win True Win WGF Advance True Advance
France -148 -140 -567 -500
Switzerland +390 +265 -111 -155
Ecuador +567 +430 +118 -115
Honduras +1900 +4100 +502 +550

 

Group F

After Brazil, no team is more heavily favored to win their group than Argentina. It’s not a slight against the competition (sans Iran), but moreso about the strength of Argentina. We give Argentina about a 2 in 3 chance of finishing top of the group. Had Bosnia been drawn with Switzerland and Ecuador, they’d likely be the favorite. Argentina took care of business against Trinidad and Slovenia in their warmup friendlies and must be feeling confident. They were not handed too favorable of a draw. We have Nigeria ranked as the #1 team in CAF, and Bosnia is certainly tougher than Greece and Croatia.

Nigeria is a team to watch in this group. They earned draws against tough UEFA sides Scotland and Greece in warmups, but they were thoroughly outplayed by the USA for a good portion of their final match. Bosnia is just as good, if not better, than the USA, so they are up against it a bit here. Iran is arguably the tournament’s biggest outsider. We have them ranked as #32 of the 32 teams in the tournament, and anything more than a last place finish will be an absolute shock. In over 3 years of data, Iran has never played a WGF top 50 opponent, and they get #5, 15 and 27 here. They’ve played teams ranked between 50 and 60 in our rankings 4 times and have 3 points to show for it. If they are able to escape Brazil with any points, it will be an upset.

Don’t be surprised to see Argentina at the top of the group and Iran at the bottom. Bosnia and Nigeria should battle it out for 2nd, but we feel fairly confident that the final order will be Argentina, Bosnia, Nigeria, Iran. Edin Dzeko is the man to watch for Bosnia, and if Bosnia does advance, he has a legitimate chance at winning the Golden Boot.

 

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Argentina 66.4% 25.0% 8.0% 0.6%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 25.2% 48.0% 25.0% 1.8%
Nigeria 8.4% 25.4% 57.0% 9.2%
Iran 0.0% 1.6% 10.0% 88.4%

 

And likewise, here are our projected odds based on these percentages versus the true odds you’ll find.

Team WGF Win True Win WGF Advance True Advance
Argentina -198 -440 -1063 -2400
Bosnia-Herzegovina +297 +710 -273 -135
Nigeria +1090 +1050 +196 +140
Iran N/A +7100 +6150 +600

 

 

We’ll have more odds and predictions soon. We hope you enjoyed reading, and be sure to follow us on Twitter @We_Global for the latest news.

 

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