World Cup Probabilities and Odds – Mid September Update

We Global Football is dedicated to providing the best coverage of international football out there. Included is providing an update on where each team stands in World Cup Qualification after the September 10th matches are played. Thus far 10 teams have already qualified for Brazil:

  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • Korea Republic
  • Iran
  • USA
  • Costa Rica
  • Italy
  • Netherlands

There are 50 teams remaining fighting for 22 spots. We’ll list where each of those teams stands within their Group and then provide an overall list of odds of reaching the World Cup for these teams.

 

CAF

As the final matchups are not yet known in CAF, we compiled a matrix of odds for the CAF sides. The Pot 1 teams with our rankings are:

  • Ivory Coast (10)
  • Nigeria (24)
  • Algeria (32)
  • Ghana (34)
  • Cape Verde Islands (69)

The Pot 2 teams with our rankings are:

  • Egypt (40)
  • Burkina Faso (49)
  • Senegal (52)
  • Cameroon (66)
  • Ethiopia (76)

Here are the odds that each of these teams qualifies for Brazil:

Team WC Odds
Ivory Coast 80.7%
Nigeria 70.1%
Algeria 63.2%
Ghana 61.8%
Cape Verde Islands 43.4%
Egypt 43.1%
Burkina Faso 39.6%
Senegal 37.8%
Cameroon 32.2%
Ethiopia 28.0%


Obviously if you’re in Pot 2, you’re hoping to draw Cape Verde. We’ll see what happens.

CONCACAF/OFC

USA and Costa Rica have qualified for Brazil. That leaves 4 teams fighting for 1 automatic qualifier and 1 home-and-home with New Zealand.

Percent of Total
Team Auto Play-Off Out
Honduras 88.6% 11.3% 0.1%
Mexico 9.6% 65.6% 24.8%
Panama 1.8% 23.1% 75.1%
Jamaica 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

We don’t have Jamaica qualifying in any of our scenarios. New Zealand will face off with the 4th place CONCACAF team, which is looking more and more like it’ll be Mexico. That’s not good news for New Zealand as Mexico is our 2nd highest ranked CONCACAF team despite being in 4th place. Combining the CONCACAF and New Zelaand odds, we have each team’s chances of reaching Brazil at:

Team WC Odds
Honduras 95.9%
Mexico 60.5%
New Zealand 26.4%
Panama 17.2%

 

CONMEBOL/AFC

Jordan will take on the 5th place team from CONMEBOL, which will be either Chile, Ecuador or Uruguay according to our simulations. Venezuela is still alive but our predictor thinks they have no shot. The CONMEBOL side, whoever it is, will surely be a large favorite. Let’s first take a look at how each team stands in CONMEBOL: Also note that Bolivia, Paraguay, and Peru have been officially eliminated from qualifying.

Percent of Total
Team Auto Play-Off Out
Colombia 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chile 97.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ecuador 75.1% 24.9% 0.0%
Uruguay 27.9% 72.1% 0.0%
Venezuela 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

As we do not have Venezuela advancing under any scenario, they are not included in the chart below which combines Jordan and the CONMEBOL sides:

Team WC Odds
Colombia 100.0%
Chile 99.6%
Ecuador 94.2%
Uruguay 81.5%
Jordan 24.8%

 

UEFA

The final 13 spots in the World Cup belong to UEFA nations. Italy and the Netherlands have clinched which leaves 11 remaining spots. Without getting into too many details, here are the odds for the 39 remaining active UEFA nations of finishing in 1st or 2nd in their group:

Team 1 2
Spain 1000 0
Belgium 1000 0
Switzerland 998 2
Germany 995 5
Bosnia-Herzegovina 869 131
Russia 727 273
England 724 212
Portugal 273 727
Ukraine 245 693
Greece 131 869
Croatia 0 1000
France 0 1000
Sweden 5 787
Iceland 2 775
Bulgaria 0 704
Romania 0 667
Denmark 0 269
Austria 0 208
Turkey 0 167
Hungary 0 166
Norway 0 159
Montenegro 29 93
Slovenia 0 46
Czech Republic 0 26
Albania 0 18
Poland 2 2
Armenia 0 1
Israel 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 0

 

As it is way too early in the game to know how the Pots will shake out, we have assigned equal weighting to teams projected to finish 2nd.

 

Overall

Here is the complete list of odds for teams to reach the World Cup. We only have 4 teams that are still mathematically alive with a 0% chance of reaching the World Cup.

Team WC Odds
Colombia 100%
Spain 100%
Belgium 100%
Switzerland 99.9%
Germany 99.7%
Chile 99.6%
Honduras 95.9%
Ecuador 94.2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 92.7%
Russia 84.8%
England 81.8%
Uruguay 81.5%
Côte d'Ivoire 80.7%
Nigeria 70.1%
Algeria 63.2%
Ghana 61.8%
Mexico 60.5%
Portugal 59.6%
Ukraine 55.3%
Greece 51.7%
Croatia 44.4%
France 44.4%
Cape Verde Islands 43.4%
Egypt 43.1%
Burkina Faso 39.6%
Senegal 37.8%
Sweden 35.5%
Iceland 34.6%
Cameroon 32.2%
Bulgaria 31.3%
Romania 29.6%
Ethiopia 28%
New Zealand 26.4%
Jordan 24.8%
Panama 17.2%
Denmark 12%
Venezuela 11.6%
Austria 9.2%
Turkey 7.4%
Hungary 7.4%
Norway 7.1%
Montenegro 7%
Slovenia 2%
Czech Republic 1.2%
Albania 0.8%
Poland 0.3%
Armenia 0%
Israel 0%
Republic of Ireland 0%
Jamaica 0%

We hope you enjoyed reading. We look forward to the upcoming matches and hope to see your team in Brazil

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