Should You Be Happy With A Draw?

It’s a relatively simple question. And there’s a simple answer. After hearing comments from many coaches following the conclusion of their matches, it’s evident that certain emotions are misguided. It’s obvious: a win is good and a loss is bad. But what about a draw?

This piece really came about due to Jurgen Klinsmann being content with the USA drawing at Trinidad and Tobago. Google “Klinsmann draw USA Trinidad” and it’ll show right there in the headlines. But he’s flat out wrong. Both he and the US Soccer Federation should not be pleased with this result. It’s not because it’s “embarrassing” to only draw the lower ranked island nation. It’s really not even because the USA will fall outside the top 30 in the December FIFA Rankings. It’s about the math.

The Question

There’s one question, and one question only, that must be asked following a draw. How did the draw affect my chances of reaching my desired goal? That’s the question. It’s the only question.

Goals can vary. Often, the goal is to progress to the next round of qualifying or reach a final tournament. For eliminated teams looking to build confidence, the goal may be to show progress against stronger opponents. Therefore, if a draw helped your chances of reaching that goal, you should be happy.

A draw can do one of three things:

1. Increase your chances of reaching your goal.
2. Have a neutral effect on your chances of reaching your goal.
3. Decrease your chances of reaching your goal.

And a manager should say these words for each of the three results:

1. We’re pleased with the result.
2. This was not a bad result for us.
3. This was not the result we wanted.

That’s all that needs to be said.

The Math

We do a lot of projections on this site. One of the common items is point projections in qualifying. For an individual team, projected points in a match are simply odds of winning * 3 + odds of drawing. Here’s an example.

Let’s say in the USA vs. Trinidad and Tobago match, triple odds were as follows (these are just estimates):

• 50% chance of USA win
• 25% chance of Trinidad win
• 25% chance of a draw

USA’s expected points would be 0.5 * 3 + 0.25 = 1.75
Trinidad’s expected points would be 0.25 * 3 + 0.25 = 1

Following a draw, the USA underachieved their expected point total. Trinidad equaled their expected point total. Logically, Trinidad’s odds of advancing increased, while the USA’s decreased.

Our projections confirmed this. The USA’s odds of advancing dropped from around 98% to around 95%. Trinidad’s odds to advance jumped a few points. Yes, this is a small difference that may not affect the long-term outlook, but it still is a negative hit. Sure, it didn’t decrease the odds as much as a loss, but it was still a decrease.

Bottom line: When your goal is to advance, and your result decreases those chances, you should NOT be content.

Conversely, Canada drew at El Salvador. Their odds to advance stayed the same, because their result equaled the expected result. Therefore, in that situation, it is perfectly acceptable to be content with the result. You could have done better, but you did not hurt your chances.

Situations

• If two teams are evenly matched in a home-and-away tie (i.e. each has a 50% chance of advancing), drawing the first leg for the road team increases their chances of qualifying. Therefore, a team should be pleased with that result.
• When a team simply needs a draw to advance or qualify, a draw increases their chances of achieving that goal.
• When a team will be eliminated from contention with a draw, obviously that reduces their chances and it should be viewed as a bad result.

These instances are much more obvious, but during a group stage, managers really need to consider how the outcome affects their team. When you direct your team that it’s OK for a draw and it actually hurts your chances, that’s bad managing.

Know your team, know your opponent, and CERTAINLY know how a result will affect your goals.

Feel free to comment or reach out to us on Twitter @We_Global. Thanks for reading!