EURO 2016 Group Stage Point Projections

We’ve already taken a look at each individual match in the first round of the EURO 2016 group stage. Now, we are looking at a high level at what each team’s projected points look like. We’ll present the grid and then get into each Group.

EURO 2016 Group Stage

We’ve also previously talked about the ranking systems here. We’ve since added The RoonBa, who is coming back with his rankings after a long hiatus. Welcome back!

 

Group A

Nobody would be surprised if France emerged the EURO 2016 Group Stage with more points than any other team. Only the Power Rank has a team other than France over 4 points. And they have Switzerland at 4.09. The good news is that this looks like a really competitive group among the rest of the teams. Everyone has Switzerland and Cromania extremely close. We also have liked Albania for awhile. The systems are projecting 3 teams from this group to advance but we’ll see about that. There may be too many close games here. Everyone has a chance to advance.

 

Group B

Two groups, two predicted runaways. Everyone is on board with the Three Lions here. Their average projection is over two points better than the next best team. RoonBa and WGF really like Slovakia’s recent form and like them 2nd. Chance De Gol and Power Rank really favor Russia. I’m a little surprised to see such negativity from the rankings on Wales. They had a strong qualifying campaign in a tough group, but over the past 12 months, they’ve really tailed off a bit. They do, of course, have one of the best players in the tournament in Gareth Bale. This group should send three teams to the knockout round.

 

Group C

We’re really pushing the envelope here. Poland and Germany have gone back and forth in our rankings. At the moment, it’s Poland for us. Every other system favors Germany in the group. Elo and CTR specifically love Germany to just crush this group. Poland and Ukraine are ranked very, very tightly here, and it’s highly likely that three teams get out of this group. We’re also rather high on Northern Ireland. We think they have a chance to sneak up into the mix, but again, not many other systems like them. 3 systems have them getting the fewest points in the EURO 2016 Group Stage.

 

Group D

Another group with a unanimous favorite in Spain. But they are not as big of a favorite as England or France. Croatia and Turkey look like very strong opposition. To have the Czech Republic as 4th favorite speaks to the strength of this group. This might be the toughest group in the tournament. 3 systems have Turkey 2nd. 3 have Croatia 2nd. The Czechs certainly have a good shot to get through as well. Every match in this group is a must watch.

 

Group E

BY FAR, the closest group across the board. Belgium’s average of 5.25 points is the lowest for a projected group winner by a wide margin. There are fewer than 2 points separating first from last here. Everyone agrees on Belgium as the favorite, but that’s no given. The wildcard here is Ireland. What can you expect from the Boys in Green? 2 systems have them 2nd, 1 has them 3rd, 3 have them last. And Sweden is always dangerous with Zlatan. This team could get three teams through, but they may beat up on each other and only two get through. Good luck predicting this one.

 

Group F

Another across the board favorite in Portugal, but a lot of ranking systems really like Austria. And why not? They destroyed their qualifying group and are a well deserved participant in EURO 2016. There are a lot that probably think this is the weakest group in the tournament. That doesn’t mean that this won’t be a tough group. If one team really underperforms, it’s certainly realistic to think 3 get through. This group should also be fun with teams that haven’t been to a finals in awhile. Great opportunity for some of the unknowns to get a shot.

 

That’s it! 5 unanimous favorites. We’re the only ones that don’t like Germany to win the group. And that’s probably a mistake. Surely there will be some surprises, but that’s who we like! Enjoy the tournament, and be sure to follow us on Twitter @We_Global.

Thanks for reading!