AFC World Cup Qualifying 2018 – Matchday 1 Preview
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While the 2nd round of World Cup Qualifying for AFC was slated to kick off on June 11th, things obviously did not go as planned. Indonesia was booted from the tournament for government interference. Of course this decision couldn’t have been made prior to the first round of qualifying. So instead of 40 teams heading into the 2nd round, there will only be 39. To make matters more difficult, the 2nd place rankings will now throw out matches against the last placed team. This complexity could have been avoided if the decision to remove Indonesia had just been made sooner.
Before we get into the details, be sure to grab our competition match tracker. All fixtures, standings, odds, predictions kept by you!
Format
There are 7 groups of 5 teams and 1 group of 4 teams for a total of 39 teams remaining in the field. Teams will play every team in their group twice. The 8 group winners and 4 best runner-ups will move on to the 3rd round of qualifying. There, the remaining 12 teams will be broken into 2 groups of 6. The top 2 in each group will qualify for the World Cup. The 3rd place teams will head to the AFC Playoffs. The 12 teams to advance to the 3rd round will also qualify for the 2019 Asian Cup.
All matches in this preview will be played on 6/11.
Group A
Group A is led by the UAE and a Saudi Arabia team that hasn’t done much lately. Palestine, Malaysia and Timor-Leste certainly must feel like they have an opportunity to crack the top 2 in this group. While we don’t favor that happening, there’s about a 1 in 3 chance it does. That’s more than can be said for many other groups. We really like the UAE to top this group, and give them almost a 95% chance of advancing to the 3rd round. After that, we give Saudi Arabia only a 30% chance of advancing, with Palestine the next best of the bunch.
Matches:
Malaysia v. Timor-Leste – Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Live Stream – free signup required
Palestine v. Saudi Arabia – Al-Ram, Palestine – Live Stream
We think Malaysia gets off on the right foot at home. This is the easiest match they should have in the group, and anything less than 3 points will be an immediate indication of a lack of hope. Expect a close match with a narrow Malaysia victory. Final: Malaysia 2 – Timor-Leste 1
Palestine has a tough test right off the bat in Saudi Arabia. It’s a huge match, and if they can claim 3 points, it will go a long way to ensuring their passage to the next round. This one really could go either way, and ultimately we think it’ll end level. Final: Palestine 1 – Saudi Arabia 1
Group B
Australia got a pretty great draw here. They’ll have to travel to unknown places in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but they should fare well. While we give Australia a 99.5% chance of progressing, the real battle is below. The 2 aforementioned teams are quite tough, and Jordan is certainly an experienced squad who has not recently been in form. Bangladesh is the long shot of the group, but they’re also no slouch. At the moment, we give Jordan the edge, but we don’t fancy a team to advance from this group other than Australia.
Matches:
Bangladesh v. Kyrgyzstan – Dhaka, Bangladesh – Live Stream
Tajikistan v. Jordan – Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Both matches are going to be interesting in this group, but Bangladesh and Kyrgyzstan would both love to have 3 points at the start. Neither team has played much of late, and as is frequently the case, Kyrgyzstan hasn’t been seen for 6 months. We think the teams test each other out slowly, and eventually end level. Final: Bangladesh 1 – Kyrgyzstan 1
Tajikistan has fared pretty well against Asian competition, winning 6 of 7. And Jordan has really, really struggled to score. We’re expecting a wide open match with plenty of opportunities. We think there’s an 85% chance of at least 2 goals in this game. It really could go either way, and we’re expecting a draw. Final: Tajikistan 1 – Jordan 1
Group C
This should be a very interesting group to see who finishes at the top, but we’re not expecting any of the bottom 3 teams to make much noise. We’ve long indicated Maldives as a team that was really the team you’d want to draw from Pot 3. Hong Kong out of Pot 5 must be pleased with getting Maldives and Bhutan as group partners. But the big boys in this group are Qatar and China, and we only think there’s about a 6% chance that the Top 2 are not those two teams. As a result, we also think that whoever finishes 2nd will also advance to the 3rd round.
Matches:
Hong Kong v. Bhutan – Hong Kong – Live Stream
Maldives v. Qatar – Male, Maldives – Live Stream
Hong Kong and Bhutan each have a tremendous opportunity to get a leg up in this group. While China sits idle, picking up 3 points should certainly inspire confidence. While Bhutan looked good getting to this round, we think Hong Kong is certainly a step up from Sri Lanka. Hong Kong is solid at home against weaker opponents. We like the home team here. Final: Hong Kong 2 – Bhutan 0
Maldives really hasn’t played anyone with the quality of Qatar since Iran in 2011. Qatar has been playing very tough opponents and really working hard to make up for a disastrous Asian Cup. We don’t think the environment or beautiful views will distract Qatar. They’ll take care of business on the road. Final: Maldives 0 – Qatar 3
Group D
Another group with a similar makeup to that of Group C. Iran and Oman appear to be the top 2 on paper, but you just never know what to expect with Turkmenistan. India and Guam will certainly be decent in this group, but it would be a major surprise to see either of them surpass Iran or Oman. This qualifying will, however, be very important for Asian Cup hopes. We view the bottom 3 teams as all very close in qualify.
Matches
Guam v. Turkmenistan – Hagatna, Guam – Live Stream
India v. Oman – Bengaluru, India – Live Stream
We’re fully expecting the Guam-Turkmenistan game to be one of the most exciting on Matchday 1. Turkmenistan hasn’t been seen in over a year, while Guam had been playing much better until a recent dry spell. Guam doesn’t play at home that often, but when they do, they don’t lose. We think the hosts start their campaign right and squeak out a narrow victory. Final: Guam 2 – Turkmenistan 1
India hasn’t played anyone in our Top 125 in 3 years. Their Strength of Schedule is 193. That’s not what you want to do heading into World Cup Qualifying. They barely got the job done against Nepal, and Oman surely will not hold back. A point for India would be a solid result. But we don’t see it happening. Final: India 0 – Oman 2
Group E
This group is Japan’s to lose. It would be arguably the biggest shock of qualifying to see Japan not advance. We rank them #1, with a 99.92% chance of advancing. They did not finish worse than 2nd in a single simulation of 2,500. But after Japan, this group is wide open. Our rankings give a pretty strong edge to Syria, but that’s probably overstated. Afghanistan and Singapore are certainly capable of giving them a run for their money. Cambodia isn’t half bad either. Japan is just that good. This group is going to produce a lot of excitement and a lot of hope for the teams in this group.
Matches:
Cambodia v. Singapore – Phnom Penh, Cambodia – Live Stream
Afghanistan v. Syria – Mashhad, Iran – Live Stream
Right off the bat, Cambodia and Singapore are going to give each other their best shot. We fully expect a high scoring match, and it can certainly be had by either side. Cambodia has been playing better recently, but Singapore feels like the better side. Don’t be surprised with any result here. Final: Cambodia 2 – Singapore 2
Not sure what Syria did last year, but they’ve been white hot since March 2014. They’ve won 5 and drawn 1 while playing every match on the road. This is going to be a very interesting match with Afghanistan, who like Syria, will play their “home” games in a different country. The predictor is awfully ambitious here, so take this one with a grain of salt. Final: Afghanistan 0 – Syria 3
Group F
There are no matches to be played in Group F, so we’ll just give a quick rundown. With Indonesia gone from qualifying, just Iraq, Thailand, Vietnam and Chinese Taipei are left to duel it out. Thailand already grabbed a 1-0 victory over Vietnam, giving them the jump on the group. We think Iraq and Thailand appear to be the two best, but Vietnam is no slouch at all. They’ll be a tough out. Even Chinese Taipei finished top of the group in a couple simulations, so don’t be surprised with anything in this group.
Group G
This group is probably going to contain the biggest battle in this round. Korea Republic is the best team here, and they’re up near the 99% mark to move on in qualifying. But after that, there will be a huge battle between Kuwait and the Cedars of Lebanon. We like both teams, and this is a really tough draw for both. We have just 0.5 projected points separating the two, and only give them combined about a 40% of advancing. If they beat each other up, it is likely that they both do not finish among the top 4 second place teams. If one emerges, they may advance. Myanmar and Laos are really going to take a beating. We don’t expect any team to finish with fewer points than Laos.
Matches:
Laos v. Myanmar – Vientiane, Laos – Live Stream – near gametime or – Live Stream
Lebanon v. Kuwait – Sidon, Lebanon – Live Stream
Right off the bat, Laos will get their easiest match of qualifying. While we don’t think they end up empty handed, it’s still going to be tough to pick up 3 points. Laos lost at home to Myanmar in October. They have just 3 wins in their last 18 matches. Myanmar hasn’t fared much better, losing 3 straight. The match may be entertaining, but it is unlikely to mean much in the long run. Final: Laos 2 – Myanmar 2
And here’s the game you want to watch if you’re a football fan. Lebanon against Kuwait is going to carry a ton of weight towards one of these teams advancing. Just hope you can find an online stream. These teams are very familiar with each other. It’ll be the 8th meeting in the past 4 years. We think it’ll be high and tight throughout. Look for the hosts to grab a late winner. Final: Lebanon 2 – Kuwait 1
Group H
And here’s your most competitive group top to bottom. In 5 of the 8 groups, we give a team at least a 90% chance of topping the group. In 2 others, it’s 70 and 75%. Here, Uzbekistan is at 50%. All 5 teams finished first in simulations, which is the only group to do that. It’s not a knock on Uzbekistan, but it just speaks to the quality of this group. Between them, Bahrain, Pot 5 haymakers Yemen, North Korea and the Philippines, this group is going to be nonstop action beginning to end. While Lebanon-Kuwait appears to be the best 1 on 1 battle, this group is going to be wild. We’ll see if this group is able to send two teams through.
Matches:
Philippines v. Bahrain – Bocaue, Philippines – Live Stream
Yemen v. Korea DPR – Doha, Qatar – Live Stream
It’s a tough start for the Philippines. With the Pot 3 teams facing the Pot 2 teams in the first round, a tough matchup with Bahrain lies ahead. Interestingly, the Philippines last opponent was Bahrain, losing away 2-1. But the Philippines have been good at home, with just 2 losses in their last 20 at home. Unfortunately, none of those teams were near the quality of Bahrain, and we think they’ll come up short, despite putting up a good fight. Final: Philippines 0 – Bahrain 2
Yemen and Korea DPR in Qatar is such a ridiculous match given the world around us. Yemen hasn’t played at home in 2.5 years, and that won’t be ending any time soon. They lost 18 straight matches. 18! between 2012 and 2014. Since then, Yemen has really turned it around. Likewise, Korea DPR hit a rough spell, but has been playing better. Should be a very tight game between two quickly improving teams. Final: Yemen 1 – Korea DPR 1
Thanks for reading! We’ll keep updating the odds throughout qualifying. There’s nothing but hope ahead. Be sure to follow us on Twitter @We_Global for all the latest news.