October 2024 International Window: Hot and Not
The October international window was packed with great moments, from Oceania’s start of the second round of World Cup Qualifiers to the Lafaek (Crocodiles) of Timor-Leste qualifying for the 2024 ASEAN Championship for only the fourth time in history. We also witnessed Liechtenstein ending the longest national team winless streak by defeating Hong Kong in Vaduz—a streak now held by Somalia (20 games). Paraguay, meanwhile, won two consecutive home World Cup Qualifiers for the first time since 2009.
Without further ado, here are our selections for teams that trended up or down this month.
Hot
Comoros
Comoros has captured our attention since they beat Ghana last year, but even we were surprised when they came away with four points against Tunisia.
This tiny island nation of just over 751,000 inhabitants is making big waves in African football right now. They’ve only lost once in the last 12 months, in a strange performance away to Madagascar during June’s World Cup Qualifiers. Coincidentally, Comoros will face Madagascar again next month in the final AFCON Qualifier of the group, which could determine who reaches Africa’s biggest stage. Other results over the past year include draws with Zambia, The Gambia, Madagascar, and Angola, as well as wins against Cape Verde, Ghana, Uganda, and now Tunisia.
Stefano Cusin, a Canadian, was hired by the federation in October 2023 and has immediately helped improve the team. Additionally, the federation has introduced fresh blood into the squad, with at least nine new players coming on board since Cusin’s arrival.
Comoros adapts intelligently to their opponents. Against stronger sides, they tend to sit back and play on the counter, with Rafiki Saïd (Troyes / FRA) and Faïz Selemani (Al-Riyadh / KSA) creating problems out wide. Saïd was outstanding against Tunisia, scoring the winner in the away leg and assisting on the goal in the draw during the reverse fixture. Myziane Maolida (Al-Kholood / KSA) has been immense since joining, capable of both scoring and holding up the ball to attract defenders. Against equal or “lesser” opponents, they prefer to open up and go on the offensive. Yacine Bourhane (Esbjerg / DEN) and Iyad Mohamed (Pau / FRA) have both been engines in the midfield. The young center-back partnership between Kassim M’Dahoma (Aubagne / FRA) and Warmed Omari (Lyon / FRA) is recent but has performed well so far. Ismaël Boura (Troyes / FRA), Saïd Bakari (Sparta Rotterdam / NED), and Rémy Vita (Amiens / FRA), who was introduced this month, lock down the defense out wide while also adding overlapping width to the attack.
Group A is tight, and November promises plenty of drama. Comoros have put themselves in a strong position to reach only their second-ever AFCON (and they’re looking good in World Cup Qualifying as well). Due to an unfit and therefore unsanctioned stadium by CAF, it remains to be seen if they will get to play in front of their home fans in Moroni. But if allowed, the final qualifier against Madagascar will undoubtedly be a packed house.
Northern Ireland
Admittedly, we did not see this Northern Ireland team coming, and we’re not entirely convinced yet, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they not only had a great October but have had a strong year overall.
In their eight matches this year, they hold a 4-2-2 record (W-D-L), with losses coming against Spain and Bulgaria. A 5-0 win at home against Bulgaria perhaps made up for the loss they suffered in September and pushed them into the top spot in the group. This is a stark contrast to their EURO qualification campaign in 2023, where they went 3-0-7 in a much tougher group.
And that’s exactly what the Nations League is for: quality matches against comparable opponents. Isaac Price, who left Everton’s academy and found a new home in Belgium with Standard Liège, delivered an incredible performance in the win over Bulgaria, scoring the first hat trick from open play this window. Shea Charles, a promising 20-year-old on loan at Sheffield Wednesday from Southampton, also put in two solid performances in midfield.
The last time the Green and White Army scored five goals was 240 matches ago, in November 1995, against Austria in a EURO qualifier.
Northern Ireland’s manager Michael O’Neill seems keen on refreshing the squad over the past year, ushering in the next generation of talent. The average age of the starting lineup against Bulgaria was 22.6 (23.9 against Belarus). We haven’t checked to see if that was the youngest lineup of any nation in October, but it’s certainly one of them.
If they can replicate their success in November, we could see Northern Ireland back in League B.
Paraguay
Prior to their win against Venezuela, you have to go back 16 matches to find the last time Paraguay scored more than one goal—over 18 months ago, in March 2023. They also hadn’t scored more than a single goal in any World Cup Qualifier in their last 11 matches. Interestingly, the last time they did so was also against Venezuela at home on September 9, 2021.
Paraguay remains undefeated in World Cup Qualifiers in 2024, with two wins and two draws.
This is a remarkable turnaround for a team that entered the year looking unlikely to reach their first World Cup since 2010. So, what changed?
First, Gustavo Alfaro. The Argentine manager, who joined Paraguay from Costa Rica in August, has completely transformed the mentality in the locker room. Beyond giving the team an identity and a style that fits their strengths, he has instilled belief—belief that they can qualify for the World Cup. Paraguay may not be a team that scores many goals, but they play tight, scrappy football, looking to hit opponents on the counter and daring them to break through their defense (just look at their win against Brazil).
Second, the introduction of Isidro Pitta (Cuiabá / BRA) at center forward. Pitta is reminiscent of Hulk—someone who looks more suited to a rugby pitch than a football one, with his size, power, and strength. Paraguay hasn’t had a player like this in a long time. While Pitta hasn’t scored for the national team yet, he’s been valuable in other ways, particularly by occupying space and drawing defenders, which opens up opportunities for players like Almirón, Enciso, and others. Interestingly, Pitta was subbed off at halftime against Venezuela for our third reason…
Antonio Sanabria (Torino / ITA). He’s been a complicated figure for Paraguay, having declined to play under Barros Schelotto, and Daniel Garnero didn’t pursue him either, so he missed the 2024 Copa América. However, things changed under Alfaro, who welcomed Sanabria back into the squad. That decision paid off immediately, with Sanabria scoring both goals in their 2-1 win against Venezuela.
With Paraguay now having multiple options up front in Pitta and Sanabria, the pressure eases on Almirón, Enciso, and Sosa, freeing them both physically and mentally to make a greater impact in each game. Paraguay’s next challenges are at home against Argentina, followed by a crucial away match at high altitude in Bolivia.
Suriname
Another team flying high at the moment is Suriname. They have qualified for the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Nations League for the first time, where they will face Canada home and away next month.
They showed great resolve to get here. After going down in the 12th minute against Costa Rica, they equalized in the 34th through Gleofilo Vlijter (OFK Beograd / SRB), who is in excellent form for his club and scored his first goal for Suriname. The match ended 1-1, allowing Suriname to leapfrog Guatemala in the group with a subsequent win against Guyana (5-1).
In recent months, Suriname has tapped into the dual national possibilities that the country’s Dutch roots provide. By launching this project, they have attracted players like Virgil Misidjan (Ferencváros / HUN), Immanuel Pherai (Hamburger / GER), Etienne Vaessen (Groningen / NED), Dylan Vente (PEC Zwolle / NED), Delano Burgzorg (Middlesbrough / ENG), Gyrano Kerk (Antwerp / BEL), and others. They are a team on the rise within CONCACAF.
It’s also hard to overlook Sheraldo Becker (Real Sociedad / ESP). With two goals against Guyana and an assist for Vlijter against Costa Rica, Becker played a key role in Suriname’s success. He’s a handful for any defender and will surely give Canada trouble next month.
South Korea
There are no easy matches left in Asian World Cup Qualifying, so when you beat the two closest rivals in your group and look fairly comfortable doing so, you deserve to be on the hot list.
South Korea did just that in October, beating Jordan away and Iraq at home, leaving those two behind (at least for the time being) to battle for the second automatic bid to the 2026 World Cup in the group.
Lee Jae-sung (Mainz / GER) had a fantastic window across both matches, scoring in each and earning a spot in our Team of the Window in midfield. His calm presence in the middle helped connect the Korean defense to the attack nearly seamlessly. His teammate in front of him, Oh Hyeon-gyu (Genk / BEL), also deserves praise for contributing a goal in both matches.
Additionally, all of this comes without their best player and captain; Son Heung-min (Tottenham / ENG) was injured, making the two wins against their biggest rivals in the group all the more significant.
Greece
Listeners to our podcast will know that we’ve been watching Greece steadily improve over the last 12 to 18 months, and they took a significant step forward in October by beating England at Wembley, 2-1. Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica / POR) was a monster against England, terrorizing their backline with a brace—just in time for Halloween.
Equally impressive was Konstantinos Mavropanos (West Ham / ENG), who helped solidify the Greek defense in both matches. He won 12 of 18 duels across the two matches, with an 87% pass completion rate coming out of the back.
They seem to have found their goal-scoring boots as well, with 17 goals in 2024 so far (compared to just 16 total in 2023). The hire of Ivan Jovanović earlier this year has done wonders to boost their confidence, with Manolis Siopsis speaking after the Ireland match:
“Our coach [Jovanović] has given us a winning mentality, and I believe there will be even better nights in the future for our national team.”
We think so as well, as they came close to reaching the EUROs this summer and currently lead their Nations League group alongside England, Ireland, and Finland.
England will be extra motivated when the two sides meet again next month, as they will believe they don’t belong in League B. For now, Greece has the advantage, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out. Greece will also want to reach League A, and the World Cup playoff spot for winning the group will serve as an extra incentive for them.
Angola
We just can’t get enough of Angola right now, and they make our ‘hot’ list again. Having secured qualification for AFCON 2025, which will be their tenth AFCON and their second in a row, this recognition seems justifiable.
They continued their undefeated streak with two wins against Niger, now extending it to 12 matches—the longest unbeaten streak of any African country since Ivory Coast lost to Sierra Leone this month (we counted Senegal’s penalty shootout loss at AFCON as a loss).
Angola boasts multiple goal threats and good depth, which is part of what makes them so dangerous and exciting. Zini (Levadiakos / GRE), a promising young attacker on loan from AEK Athens, is one to watch. Mabululu (Al Ahly Tripoli / LBY) is always a threat, and Milson (Red Star Belgrade / SRB) has scored in the last two windows (September/October). Zito Livumbo (Cagliari / ITA), Gelson Dala (Al Wakra / QAT), and Randy Nteka (Rayo Vallecano / ESP) are also capable of finding the back of the net.
It’s a long way off, but it’s likely they won’t be a pushover for any team in Morocco next year.
Other Teams Heating Up
Uganda: Had South Africa beaten the Congo Republic, Uganda would have secured a spot at AFCON 2025. The Cranes are very close to returning to Africa’s big stage ahead of hosting it themselves in 2027, which will serve as a good pretest. They dispatched South Sudan in both matches of the self-proclaimed ‘Big Little Brother Battle’ to put themselves in this position and played very well as a unit.
Botswana: Where did these Zebras come from? With two narrow but effective 1-0 wins over Cape Verde, they are firmly in the picture to reach AFCON for only the second time in their history. We project them with a 62.88% chance of qualifying heading into the November window, which won’t be easy. They host Mauritania before heading to Egypt. If they can navigate that, Botswana might just be the surprise of the qualifiers.
Sudan: Four points against Ghana has Sudan dreaming of a spot at AFCON, and they are very close. For a nation now beset by civil war, the national team is a bright beacon of joy for many who are suffering. The Eisa brothers have been a revelation since their return, and Abdelrahman Kuku (Al Ittihad Tripoli / LBY) has helped solidify the backline to great effect.
Not
Ghana
October was a disaster for Ghana. The Black Stars have qualified for every AFCON since 1992, except for the 2004 edition, but they are on the verge of missing out in 2025. We give them a 2.36% chance of reaching Morocco.
Ghana has now lost seven of their last seventeen matches, drawing six of those.
The trend shown above is worrisome for a country that produces so many great footballers. Although we take rankings with a grain of salt, our own tends to mirror the same. There is definitely something not right happening with the Ghana national team right now, and no one seems to know how to fix it.
If there is to be a great escape, it will have to come early and swiftly against Angola, with the hope that Niger upsets Sudan. Even then, the ball won’t be in their court when they host Niger in the final match.
Uruguay
While we suspect that Uruguay will be fine in the end, they are currently enduring a poor run of form. Their attack seems blunt at the moment; they haven’t scored any goals in September or October.
Bielsa continues to stick with the same core of players, but is that core really delivering? Is he playing it too safe? Draws against Paraguay and Venezuela, along with an ugly loss to Peru, make us wonder. Those are not good results, regardless of the fact that they didn’t lose.
However, to consider the other side: is now really the time to try new players? Would it be best to secure qualification first and then tinker?
We’re not really sure. If it takes until the final few matchdays to qualify, it feels a bit like a missed opportunity. We wonder if Bielsa may be relying on other teams’ results instead of going for the jugular himself, and we believe that Uruguay has the quality to reach 2026 on their own merit—not by waiting around for others.
Venezuela
Outside of the Copa América, Venezuela has had a pretty poor 2024. They haven’t won any matches except for those in the tournament this summer and seem to be dropping like a stone down the World Cup qualification table.
For a moment, when they drew with Argentina at home, we wondered if that would be the start of a turnaround. Despite losing the possession battle, they created opportunities and peppered the opposing goal with a 3:1 shot ratio against their opponents. However, losing to Paraguay (albeit away) was not a good result. They need to recover their form quickly and get players who delivered at the start of qualifying, like Soteldo (Grêmio / BRA), Bello (Barcelona / ECU), and Savarino (Botafogo / BRA), to find their form again.
Another opportunity beckons in November when they visit Chile.
Antigua and Barbuda
The Benna Boys look destined for League C in the CONCACAF Nations League. They haven’t won in nine matches, including games against opponents such as Bermuda, Dominica, and the Bahamas. They conceded 10 goals against the Dominican Republic this month in two 5-0 losses and struggled to create much of anything, having scored only twice in their last seven matches.
Other teams around them, with perhaps the exception of Dominica, seem to be securing the services of new dual national players, while Antigua and Barbuda, despite its historical ties with England, has not been able to do the same.
Though not official, it seems all but certain that Antigua and Barbuda will suffer relegation in this Nations League campaign. With only one goal scored, a goal difference that does not favor them, and poor head-to-head records, they will need to do something significant against Dominica in November to have any hope.
Switzerland
The Swiss really needed to beat Denmark in St. Gallen this month, and despite taking the lead into halftime, they were unable to secure the win. They’ve scored only one more goal than they have received red cards (3/2) in the Nations League and look likely to head down to League B.
In 2024, they’ve beaten Estonia (4-0), Ireland (1-0), Hungary (EURO, 3-1), and Italy (EURO, 2-0). However, the other nine matches have all ended in draws or losses, albeit against higher-quality opponents. Despite having many talented players, they haven’t been in good form for a while now; 2023 was a very mixed bag for them as well.
Which makes it all the more confusing that the Swiss federation handed an extension to Murat Yakin. Yes, he’s led them to major tournaments, but more recently they’ve been fortunate to be in a fairly mediocre EURO qualification group where they struggled quite a bit. This edition of the Nations League has not been so kind, placing them in a tough group with Denmark, Spain, and Serbia. Thus, it’s a little telling that they are having a rough go. Perhaps the warning signs were evident after getting humbled 6-1 by Portugal in the last World Cup.
No doubt Switzerland will find form again; they are too talented not to. For now, though, they are running as cold as the springs that flow from the Swiss Alps.
Cape Verde
The Blue Sharks may have taken their foot off the gas pedal a bit too soon. October was supposed to be the month when they nearly secured qualification for AFCON, but instead, they found themselves caught with a hook in their mouth.
Losing twice to Botswana has put them in a precarious position, where they now need to earn points against Egypt (H) and Mauritania (A). They seem far from the side we saw earlier in the year at AFCON, which beat Ghana and Mozambique and tied Egypt. Goals have suddenly become hard to come by, with only two scored in AFCON qualifying so far and just six in the eight matches since the last AFCON ended.
That stat can be a bit misleading because they created 39 goal attempts against Botswana over the two legs; however, many were not high-quality shots, and Botswana blocked quite a few (12). These are fine margins, and we hope to see Cape Verde recover in time for World Cup qualifying to resume.
More Not
Guinea-Bissau: We had high hopes for Beto, but those did not materialize in October. Franculino was kept on the bench for all but 12’ (which we disagree with), and they failed to score any goals in either match. Both Mali and Mozambique have now distanced themselves, creating a four-point gap in AFCON qualifying. It will take a big November for Guinea-Bissau to pull themselves back into contention.
Indonesia: They faced two of their closest rivals in the table and came away with only a single point, including handing China their first win in this round of qualifying. The late goal from Bahrain was devastating, and they couldn’t recover against China in their next match. Had that match gone on for another ten minutes, Indonesia very well may have salvaged a draw (China was cracking), but instead, they missed two crucial opportunities that could haunt them.
Saudi Arabia: The results for Saudi Arabia this month have benefited Australia more than themselves, as the Socceroos have now caught up. Those two teams face off next month in what is likely the match of the round, as the winner (if there is one) will probably go on to qualify directly for 2026. You simply can’t afford to draw with Bahrain at home, and the pressure is now on Mancini.
Tajikistan: We miss Petar Šegrt, and so does Tajikistan. While the reasons for his departure remain unclear, it’s evident that all his hard work has gone down the proverbial toilet. Since the incredible fun of the Asian Cup, Tajikistan has won only once outright, which was against Pakistan to conclude World Cup qualifying. They beat the Philippines in penalties in September at the Merdeka Cup, but then lost heavily to them in the King’s Cup this month. Gela Shekiladze has had a tough time replicating Šegrt’s success, and we wonder if he won’t be around much longer.
Azerbaijan: When the Nations League began, Azerbaijan was in League D, and it is looking likely that they are heading back down. Fernando Santos hasn’t accomplished much yet, besides expressing frustration, and Azerbaijan hasn’t won a game in the group, including a loss to Estonia.