An Open Letter to Nations Wanting to Go to the World Cup
The World Cup trophy is one of the most iconic symbols of success in all of sports. There are only eight nations in the entire world that can claim that they have once been champions of the world. Knowing that this trophy is only awarded once every four years, and that only one team can win it, reaching the finals of the World Cup and competing on the world’s biggest stage is a tremendous accomplishment itself for most nations. While 32 nations reach the finals, you’d be hard pressed to find someone who was convinced that the 32 best teams in the world were all represented at the tournament.
This is understandable. FIFA believes that what is best for the footballing world is that every corner of the globe is represented. In fact, most would agree that this is the best approach. It gives every nation an opportunity to be one of the best in their region and then prove what they can do in the World Cup finals. In 2010, only 6 of the final 16 remaining nations came from UEFA and only 3 of the final 8. Each of these numbers were an all-time worst showing for UEFA. The rest of the world may be catching up. Click the below image if you’d like to see it larger.
With so many slots available, teams should take advantage of every opportunity afforded to them during qualifying. There are many factors which contribute to a team reaching the World Cup. Obviously, the most important factor is having a quality side which can win games and ultimately get you there. But there are other factors in play which should certainly be addressed.
2014 Qualification
Let’s take a look at a specific example from the 2014 UEFA qualification round. Teams like Finland, Belarus and Israel are on par with Albania and Iceland. Our rankings actually indicate that all three are better than Albania and Iceland. So why are Albania’s and Iceland’s chances of qualifying for Brazil so much higher than Finland’s, Belarus’ and Israel’s? The answer is simply they were drawn into a more favorable group. Finland and Belarus must deal with Spain and France while Israel deals with the likes of Russia and Portugal. The Pot 1 team Albania and Iceland were dealt is surprisingly… Norway.
Is Norway one of the nine best teams in Europe? While most would disagree, the FIFA Rankings used to decide the Pots for the final draw answered “Yes”. The point here is less about Albania and Iceland than it is about Norway. By sneaking into Pot 1, Norway guaranteed that they would not have to compete with the likes of Spain, England, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy to reach Brazil. That simple fact alone dramatically increased Norway’s chances of qualifying for the World Cup before the campaign even started. For reference, here are what the UEFA pots looked like:
On the other side of the coin, Bosnia-Herzegovina was luckily paired with the lowest ranked teams from Pots 1 and 2 and has fared very well. Their qualifying campaign could be very different if instead of Greece and Slovakia, they had drawn Spain and France. This is a chance teams should not be willing to take. As a result of Bosnia, Iceland, and Albania’s fortune and Belarus, Finland, and Israel’s misfortune, it is fairly safe to say that ignoring your own side’s quality, the higher pot you are in, the better your chances of qualification.
Another quick example is in CONCACAF where Cuba progressed to the final 12 of qualifying based solely on their FIFA ranking. By the time they played their first game, 23 CONCACAF teams had already been eliminated from qualification. Ultimately, they were swiftly eliminated themselves, but their chances of reaching the World Cup certainly were greater than if they had to navigate through multiple rounds of qualifying just to get to the same point.
Why Use This Ranking?
The FIFA world ranking has come under scrutiny, but it is deemed a fair way to rank teams. There is a point system applied to each match played, with more weight given to wins and big competitions and qualifiers as opposed to friendlies. For the most part, it does a decent job of capturing the teams at the very top and the teams at the very bottom. The in between is certainly up for debate.
Every confederation except for CONMEBOL (the obvious reason being there is only one group), uses the FIFA ranking in some way to determine groups for World Cup Qualifying. It is KNOWN that this is how groups are determined, yet nations continually do not take advantage of this available information. While it is too late for most nations to think about 2014, it is certainly not too soon to think about how this could affect a 2018 qualifying campaign. Believe it or not, we’re closer to the draw for 2018 than we are for 2014. Nations should be thinking about how they can improve their ranking in advance of the 2018 draw in Russia.
How to Improve the Ranking
We’ve written a piece on this site as well as on others about the importance of scheduling (or not scheduling) international friendlies. Due to the devaluation of friendly matches, playing an overabundance of them can severely limit your FIFA ranking. Obviously finding the right balance between building experience through competition and scheduling intelligently can be difficult. For most nations, however, you can accomplish both tasks at the same time.
This is no more evident than right now in Africa. Cameroon, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia all have the opportunity to be in Pot 1 for the final round of qualifying. This increases the chances of qualifying for the World Cup dramatically as avoiding Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria, who look like the region’s strongest teams is key. Yet each team decided to schedule August friendlies that will either hurt their FIFA ranking, or have no effect at best. Their focus should be on improving their FIFA ranking and getting into Pot 1.
On a personal level, it is disheartening that the criteria for determining Pots is known as well as how the ranking is calculated, but there is so little appropriate action taken to improve a team’s chances. The most difficult thing to understand is why nations decide to ignore this information. If you can act on information to improve your chances of reaching the World Cup, why not?
Conclusion
We realize that the information we have provided here only scratches the surface. There are 32 spots available in the World Cup, but there are not 32 locks to reach the finals. In any given qualification, there are at least 75 or more teams that have a legitimate chance at reaching the finals. Given the right tools, it can be done.
If you want your country to reach the World Cup, make your country aware. Even if it doesn’t involve speaking directly with us, there is more that goes into qualification than just wins and losses. We can be reached at briff@weglobalfootball.com or on Twitter @We_Global. It is never too soon to start thinking ahead.
We hope you enjoy both this article as well as all of the other international content on our site.
Sincerely,
We Global Football