2014 World Cup Odds and Predictions – Groups G and H

We continue our series of World Cup previews with the exciting and very competitive Groups G and H. Thanks to our designer Adam Tatz for all of the amazing logos.

Other Previews:

Groups A and B

Groups C and D

Groups E and F

 

Group G

Group G is arguably the most difficult group in the World Cup. As usual, the USA is punished by the mere fact that 4 + 4 = 8. 4 CONCACAF teams plus 4 AFC teams equals an even pot. As a result, the USA doesn’t have the opportunity to feast on the weak AFC teams that the other confederations are afforded. But likewise, Germany, Portugal and Ghana can’t be happy that they ended up with USA instead of Iran. The pots should be even and fair.

But it is what it is, and this is going to be an extremely competitive group. Germany clearly has the inside track on the top spot, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see any of the other 3 teams advancing. The only true surprise in this group would be if something happened to Germany. We give Germany a remarkable 87.4% chance of emerging from this group.

After Ghana’s 4-0 thrashing of Korea Republic, many are viewing them as far more dangerous than previously believed. While Ghana is a good team, we don’t like their chances of making it out of the group. The quality of the rest of the group is just too tough. It will be interesting to see if the USA can avenge their Ghanaian ghosts of the past 2 World Cups.

Just like Group E, there’s really no value anywhere here.

 

And likewise, here are our projected odds based on these percentages versus the true odds you’ll find.

 

Group H

Belgium and Russia must be feeling pretty confident about this draw. Algeria and Korea Republic are not nearly in the same class as either of the UEFA teams. If it is not Belgium and Russia advancing, something will have to have gone seriously astray. But of course Belgium and Russia are dealing with injuries, which could potentially open the door for one of the other two to sneak in.

Korea Republic just suffered a 4-0 defeat to Ghana, so it is fair to wonder how they’ll look against potentially even better competition. There is not a single other group where we believe that two different teams have greater than an 80% chance of advancing. We give both Russia and Belgium an over 86% chance of advancing. Algeria will be an interesting team to watch. They won all 3 warm-up friendlies, which were all against UEFA opponents. If there’s a team to emerge and knock off the top 2, it’ll probably be one of them.

We view Russia and Belgium much closer than the odds would indicate. Belgium is viewed as the better side, but their odds have drastically come down over the recent months. They were a heavy, heavy favorite to win the group just months ago. There is also a clear disconnect between us and the oddsmakers on Korea Republic.

 

And likewise, here are our projected odds based on these percentages versus the true odds you’ll find.

 

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